June 1, 2017

A Week of Predictions

Cassandra Complex: a condition the comes from valid warnings or predictions being ignored.

This description comes from Greek mythology, when Priam’s daughter Cassandra was given the gift of prediction but the curse that no one would believe her.

F’in gods.

Most entrepreneurs, by nature of the game, have to predict the future.  They have to be able to envision market trends or consumer adoption of their technology or concepts in order to make a buck.

The problem is that most entrepreneurs have to wait until the market is ready for their ideas, with the result being a routine case of Cassandra Complex for those trying to change the way we do things.

As an entrepreneur, I love going to events or having the opportunity to hear what others are saying about the future because it helps stimulate my own conversation about the path ahead.

Last week, I attended an event where a speaker gave us some insights on the state of the world with technology and media.

I was impressed with the review the previous year, especially when the presenter spent some time on the significant distortion with respect to women (or lack thereof) in the technology industry compared to men.

As an FYI, the ratio is about 3:1 men to women.

There’s actually no mystery.  If you’re read ‘Disrupted’ by Dan Lyons, which sheds light on his experience with a tech startup called Hubspot, or you’ve watched the show ‘Silicon Valley’ (to which he contributes), you’ll know the reason why: frat parties continue their way into new ventures.

His conclusion:  this mindset is intimidating for most women and they choose structured institutions.

Other ‘predictions’ such as increasing relevance of billboards because more people are driving than ever before and continued necessity of traditional TV advertising as part of your media plan left me feeling very flat following the presentation.

Bitcoin was relegated to the seedy underworld of criminals, terrorists and kiddie-porn collectors and Android / Kodi was viewed as a non-issue, despite the fact that there are now nearly 2 million users in Canada ALONE!

This is living proof that it’s hard to make predictions.  Those that do have to be prepared for criticism from cynical old pricks like me.  Those that make a living from it:  my hat is definitely off to you!

Anyways, I like to stick to the facts and, well, draw my own conclusions.

Which is why the ‘War and Peace’ collection of internet trends from Mary Meeker released this week is a MUST READ for folks like me, especially if you like to have a little bit of ammo when we sling around ideas about the state of the industry, whether it’s tech, media or trends related to both.

Enjoy your 300+ pages of details about internet advertising, tools used and more!!

Here’s a quick list of things to look for:

  1. Mobile = majority of time spent consuming media
  2. Internet ad spend > TV ad spend
  3. Google = HUGE (I call it the ‘Big G’)
  4. Success = Location + Route + Destination + TOD + Offer
  5. The Content = The Store
  6. Unboxing
  7. Product Find … In Store
  8. Computer Generated Custom Products
  9. Subscription Stores
  10. Everyone Now Gamified Since Birth

And this is just the first 100 pages!!

If you’re a data geek, advertiser, entrepreneur or just curious, you will spend hours reading this document.

And don’t say I didn’t warn you :)

Categories: Books I'll Never Write , Random Thoughts , Tech I'll Never Launch

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